By Len Port

The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Luís Montenegro, won the most votes in the parliamentary legislative election held on May 18, though not enough to form a stable government.

The centre-left Socialist Party (PS), led by Pedro Nuno Santos, finished second with 23%, just ahead of the far-right Chega party, led by André Ventura, which garnered a surprising 22.56%.

Chega emerged as the leading party in the Algarve and elsewhere across southern Portugal. In the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, the far-right Chega party made notable inroads, though it did not secure victories in either region. 

It remains to be seen whether the Socialists will join the AD again in a coalition government, but neither of the centrist parties is likely to align with the populist right.

All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic were contested. The PS and Chega each secured 58 seats.

The votes from Portuguese citizens living abroad will play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome. Portugal allocates four parliamentary seats to represent its diaspora: two for voters residing in Europe and two for those outside Europe.

These votes often arrive and are counted after the domestic ballots, making them crucial in closely contested elections. The final allocation of these overseas seats, to be known before May 28, will significantly impact the formation and stability of the new government.

The overall voter turnout for the 2025 election was 64.4%, a slight decrease from the 66.2% turnout in the previous 2024 election. Specific percentages for absentee overseas votes have not been disclosed.

Centrist parties have dominated Portuguese politics since the 1974 revolution, which dramatically replaced the dictatorship with democracy. However, instability has been the norm for the past decade. The cost of living, housing shortages, and immigration are the main concerns among voters today. Another key issue is a lack of confidence in politicians.

There have been three governments in the past three years, each brought down by scandal and necessitating another snap election.

Prime Minister Montenegro was sworn in just over a year ago. His party formed a coalition with the PS Social Democrats and the CSD People’s Party. This was not expected to last long, and it didn’t.

Allegations against Prime Minister Montenegro concerning a conflict of interest involving his family’s business sparked a scandal. Montenegro denied the claims but lost a parliamentary confidence vote and was obliged to call another snap election. A previous scandal had brought down the Socialist government of António Costa. These events have fuelled widespread public dissatisfaction with the ruling political class.

Despite the fragility of recent governments, Portugal has outperformed most European countries in economic growth, run budget surpluses, and reduced its debt under both centre-left and centre-right administrations.

The future of major projects, such as lithium mining and the long-discussed privatisation of the TAP airline, could face further delays. In foreign policy, the new government is expected to continue condemning Israel’s brutality in Gaza and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

More than 10,850,000 Portuguese citizens were registered to vote in Sunday’s ballot, though a low turnout was expected. As of 2024, approximately 1.8 million Portuguese nationals reside abroad, according to estimates from Portugal’s Emigration Observatory. 

The Portuguese diaspora is widespread, with significant communities in various countries. France is home to one of the largest communities, with around 550,000 Portuguese nationals. Germany has approximately 244,000 Portuguese national residents. In the United Kingdom, estimates vary, but the Portuguese community is substantial, ranging from 165,000 to 350,000 individuals. In Canada, 448,310 Canadians claim full or partial Portuguese ancestry. The United States has a Portuguese-American population estimated at 1.4 million, with significant communities in states like Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and California.

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Len Port, born in Northern Ireland, worked as a news reporter and correspondent, mainly in Hong Kong and South Africa, before moving to Portugal many years ago.