Portugal is scheduled to hold a snap legislative election on May 18, 2025, following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) minority government.
The government fell on March 11, 2025, after losing a parliamentary confidence vote amid allegations of conflicts of interest related to Montenegro’s family business, Spinumviva. Montenegro has said he will run for prime minister again in the elections.
On March 13, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved parliament and announced the early election, marking the third parliamentary election in just over three years. At a time of tense international conflicts, “these elections, nobody was expecting them, nor wanting them” said the President, urging parties to focus their campaigns on problems “that worry the Portuguese in their daily lives” such as the economy and healthcare.”
In the previous election held in March 2024, Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD), comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People’s Party (CDS–PP), and the People’s Monarchist Party (PPM), narrowly won with approximately 29% of the vote, securing 80 out of 230 seats. The Socialist Party (PS), led by Pedro Nuno Santos, received about 28% of the vote and 78 seats. The far-right party Chega (CH) made significant gains, obtaining 18% of the vote and 50 seats.
Current opinion polls suggest a closely contested election between the PS and the AD, with neither party showing a decisive lead. This raises concerns that the upcoming election may not resolve the political deadlock, potentially leading to continued instability.
A recent opinion poll indicated that the Socialists were slightly ahead on voting intentions at 30.8%. The center-right Democratic Alliance group headed by Montenegro was at 25.8 percent, followed by the far-right Chega party at about 17%.
Public sentiment reflects frustration and skepticism about the potential for achieving political stability through this election. Many voters doubt that the upcoming vote will resolve the ongoing instability, given the recent history of government collapses and the fragmented political landscape.
With a population of around 10.6 million people, Portugal has had a series of minority governments in recent years. The minority Democratic Alliance (AD), fell only 11 months after being inaugurated, bringing the country to a third general election in three years.
The forthcoming election is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for Portugal, as it seeks to establish a stable government capable of addressing pressing issues and restoring public confidence in its political institutions.
PAJ/Staff
